In the ever-evolving world of music, certain tracks resonate with audiences on a monumental scale, achieving the coveted status of a ‘smash hit’. But what makes these songs stand out in a sea of melodies? With the advent of streaming platforms like Spotify, we now have access to a treasure trove of data that can help unravel the secrets behind chart-topping success.

Spotify’s “Billions Club” playlist is a testament to musical masterpieces that have surpassed the 1 billion streams mark. Analyzing the tracks on this playlist offers a unique opportunity to delve into the anatomy of a hit song. Our study, titled “The Science of a Smash Hit,” aims to decode the elements that contribute to a song’s immense popularity.

Thanks to our research we found top 10 songs with over a billion streams that are the closest to the mathematical perfection in their characteristics. The songs vary in genre, proving that no matter the pigeonholing, it’s the groove that drives the listeners to the hits.


  • Universal Musical DNA: The C♯, D♭ Major key combined with a 4/4 time signature emerges as a potent formula, transcending genres and eras to resonate with global listeners in the Billions Club playlist.
  • Mood Mastery: A neutral valence strikes a harmonious balance, offering listeners a mix of emotions, from uplifting highs to soulful introspection, making it a recurring theme in chart-topping tracks.
  • Rhythmic Resonance: Songs with around 118 beats per minute (BPM) hit the sweet spot, offering a tempo that’s neither too fast nor too slow, versatile for both active listening and as background music.
  • Dance & Energy Dynamics: Tracks with moderate to high danceability and energy levels dominate the playlist, indicating a global preference for music that’s both invigorating and groove-worthy.
  • The top 10 songs that are mathematically perfect for the streaming age: 
      1. “These Days” (feat. Jess Glynne, Macklemore & Dan Caplen) by Rudimental
      2. “ROCKSTAR” (feat. Roddy Ricch) by DaBaby
      3. “Too Good At Goodbyes” by Sam Smith
      4. “Ransom” by Lil Tecca
      5. “The Night We Met” by Lord Huron
      6. “Can’t Hold Us” by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
      7. “Money Trees” by Kendrick Lamar & Jay Rock
      8. “Wake Me Up” by Avicii
      9. “All The Stars”  by Kendrick Lamar & SZA
      10. “Stay” by Rihanna

To find out more about how we came to these conclusions, keep reading our in-depth insights!


Weighted Averages and Song Matches:

The weighted averages provide a numerical representation of the musical elements that resonate with listeners, as reflected in the Billions Club playlist. By analyzing these metrics and their corresponding song matches, we can infer certain patterns and preferences in popular music. While individual metrics like danceability or energy offer insights, it’s the holistic combination of all these elements that crafts a chart-topping hit. As the music industry evolves, leveraging such data-driven insights can be instrumental in understanding and catering to listeners’ preferences.

Spotify metrics

Spotify uses its Web API to analyze individual tracks and extract various audio features. Each feature, such as danceability or energy, is assigned a value between 0 and 1, representing the confidence or intensity of that characteristic in the track. A value closer to 1 indicates a higher presence or confidence of the particular feature, while a value closer to 0 suggests its absence or low intensity.

Loudness and BPM function differently from other features. Loudness is measured in decibels (dB) and typically ranges from -60dB to 0dB, with 0dB indicating maximum loudness. BPM, on the other hand, represents the tempo of the track in beats per minute, with no upper limit, capturing the track’s pace and rhythm.

Danceability (Value: 0.663):

Closest Match: “Ain’t No Mountain High Enough” by Marvin Gaye

Analysis: Danceability measures how suitable a track is for dancing based on a combination of musical elements, including tempo, rhythm stability, beat strength, and overall regularity. A value of 0.663 suggests a moderate to high danceability. Marvin Gaye’s classic hit, with its upbeat tempo and rhythmic consistency, exemplifies this. The song’s success indicates that tracks with a balanced danceability resonate well with a broad audience, offering a blend of listenability and groove.

Energy (Value: 0.642):

Closest Match: “Ransom” by Lil Tecca

Analysis: Energy represents the intensity and activity of a track. A value closer to 1 indicates high energy (e.g., fast, loud, noisy), while values closer to 0 represent a more relaxed, mellow vibe. “Ransom” by Lil Tecca, with its dynamic beats and engaging rhythm, mirrors this energy level. The song’s popularity might suggest that listeners prefer tracks that maintain a certain level of vigor without being overwhelmingly intense.

Loudness (Value: -6.181 dB):

Closest Match: “Peaches (feat. Daniel Caesar & Giveon)” by Justin Bieber

Analysis: Loudness values are averaged across the track and are measured in decibels (dB). Tracks with a value around -6.181 dB strike a balance between being audibly clear and not being too overpowering. Justin Bieber’s “Peaches” exemplifies this balance, with its clear vocals and instrumentation that’s neither too soft nor too aggressive. Such a balanced loudness level can enhance a song’s replay value, making it suitable for various listening environments.

Speechiness (Value: 0.089):

Closest Match: “Animals” by Maroon 5

Analysis: Speechiness detects the presence of spoken words in a track. The value of 0.0898 indicates a track that has some speech, like rap music, but isn’t dominated by spoken content. Maroon 5’s “Animals” fits this description, blending lyrical content with melodic elements. This balance can make a song more versatile, appealing to both listeners who enjoy lyrical depth and those who lean towards melodic content.

Instrumentalness (Value: 0.008):

Closest Match: “The Less I Know The Better” by Tame Impala (Value: 0.00678)

Analysis: Instrumentalness measures the amount of vocals in a track; the closer the value is to 1.0, the more instrumental the song is. A value of 0.00765 suggests that the track has significant vocal content. Tame Impala’s “The Less I Know The Better” exemplifies this, blending rich instrumentation with prominent vocals. Such tracks offer a harmonious blend of lyrical content and instrumental depth, appealing to a wide range of listeners.

Liveness (Value: 0.167):

Closest Matches:

“I’m the One” by DJ Khaled (feat. Justin Bieber, Quavo, Chance the Rapper & Lil Wayne) (Value: 0.167)

“Happier” by Marshmello

“The Less I Know The Better” by Tame Impala

Analysis: Liveness detects the presence of a live audience in the recording. A value closer to 1.0 indicates a live track. A value of 0.167 suggests a studio recording with minimal audience noise. The tracks listed, including DJ Khaled’s “I’m the One,” have a polished, studio-produced sound, which often resonates with listeners seeking a clean and consistent auditory experience.

Valence (Value: 0.494):

Closest Matches:

“No Role Modelz” by J. Cole (Value: 0.494)

“Say You Won’t Let Go” by James Arthur

Analysis: Valence measures the musical positiveness conveyed by a track. Tracks with high valence sound more positive (e.g., happy, cheerful), while tracks with low valence sound more negative (e.g., sad, depressed). A value of 0.494 indicates a neutral mood, striking a balance between positive and melancholic tones. Both “No Role Modelz” and “Say You Won’t Let Go” exemplify this balance, offering listeners a mix of emotions and moods.

BPM (Beats Per Minute) (Value: 117.79):

Closest Match: “Ride It” by Regard (BPM: 118)

Analysis: BPM measures the tempo of a song, indicating how fast or slow it is. A BPM of around 117.79 suggests a moderate tempo, which is often associated with pop, hip-hop, and dance genres. Regard’s “Ride It” mirrors this tempo, offering listeners a rhythmic experience that’s neither too fast nor too slow. Such a tempo is versatile, suitable for both active listening and background music.

Key, mode & time signature combo

In the vast universe of music, certain elements resonate universally, transcending genres, moods, and eras. While the magic of a hit song often feels intangible, data analytics offers a unique lens to decode the patterns behind chart-topping success. Our recent deep dive into Spotify’s Billions Club playlist has unveiled a fascinating trend: a specific combination of musical key, mode, and time signature that seems to be a recurring theme among smash hits.

Closest match: “thank u, next” by Ariana Grande

“Need to Know” by Doja Cat

“Smells Like Teen Spirit” by Nirvana

Key: C♯, D♭ (also known as B double sharp)

Mode: Major

Time Signature: 4/4

This combination, while seemingly simple, has been the backbone of numerous iconic tracks spanning various genres and moods. From pop anthems to soulful ballads, from hip-hop bangers to timeless rock classics, this musical formula has proven its universal appeal.

Analyzing these metrics provides a deeper understanding of the musical elements that define the tracks in Spotify’s Billions Club playlist. From the balance of instrumental and vocal content to the mood and tempo of the songs, these elements play a pivotal role in shaping a track’s appeal. As artists and producers craft new music, these data-driven insights can offer valuable guidance in resonating with global audiences.


So how to make the perfect song? 

Based on the data and insights provided, let’s first identify the “perfect” combination of musical characteristics that seem to resonate most with listeners, and then explore similar combinations that could also yield successful results.

The Mathematically Perfect Combination:

Key: C♯, D♭ (also known as B double sharp)

Mode: Major

Time Signature: 4/4

Danceability: Moderate to high danceability (Around 0.663)
Energy: Moderate energy level (Around 0.6419)

Loudness: Clear and balanced loudness (Around -6.181 dB)

Speechiness: Some spoken content but not dominated by it (Around 0.0898)

Instrumentalness: Significant vocal content with some instrumental elements (Around 0.00765)

Liveness: Studio recording feel with minimal audience noise (Around 0.167)

Valence: Neutral mood, balancing between positive and melancholic tones (Around 0.494)

BPM (Beats Per Minute): Moderate tempo (Around 117.79)

While the above combination lays down the theoretical framework for a chart-topper, real-world music offers us some shining examples. Let’s dive into the top 10 songs that resonate perfectly with this mathematical model:

Top 10 songs that fit this formula the best: 

  1. “These Days” by Rudimental: A soulful collaboration with Jess Glynne, Macklemore, and Dan Caplen, capturing the essence of modern pop.
  2. “ROCKSTAR” by DaBaby: A hip-hop anthem featuring Roddy Ricch, showcasing infectious beats and memorable lyrics.
  3. “Too Good At Goodbyes” by Sam Smith: A heartfelt ballad that tugs at the heartstrings with its emotive vocals.
  4. “Ransom” by Lil Tecca: A catchy rap track with a modern sound, reflecting the youth’s voice.
  5. “The Night We Met” by Lord Huron: An indie favorite, evoking nostalgia with its haunting melody.
  6. “Can’t Hold Us” by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis: A high-energy pop-rap track that became an anthem for many.
  7. “Money Trees” by Kendrick Lamar & Jay Rock: A hip-hop masterpiece, blending storytelling with rhythmic prowess.
  8. “Wake Me Up” by Avicii: A genre-blending track that combines country elements with electronic beats, defining Avicii’s signature sound.
  9. All The Stars” by Kendrick Lamar & SZA: A harmonious blend of rap and R&B, capturing the essence of the “Black Panther” movie.
  10. Stay” by Rihanna: A poignant ballad that showcases Rihanna’s vocal range and emotional depth.

Note: Being “closest to perfection” doesn’t imply that these tracks perfectly align with all the identified values. Instead, it signifies that they collectively resonate closest to the majority of the ideal characteristics outlined in the study.

While the “perfect” combination provides a blueprint based on the success of tracks in the Billions Club playlist, it’s essential to remember that music is both an art and a science. The similar combinations offer alternative routes to crafting resonant tracks. However, the magic often lies in the unique blend of creativity, emotion, and technical prowess that each artist brings to the table. These combinations serve as guidelines, but the heart and soul of the music will always be paramount.


The primary objective of this study was to decode the musical characteristics of tracks that have surpassed the 1 billion streams mark on Spotify, aiming to identify patterns and elements that resonate most with global listeners.

Data Acquisition:

Source: All data for this study has been sourced from Spotify’s publicly available API. We assure you, no song has been harmed in the process of acquiring this data.

Scope: The data encompasses tracks listed in Spotify’s Billions Club playlist, which includes songs that have achieved over 1 billion streams on the platform.

Data Points: For each track, we extracted various musical characteristics, including but not limited to: Key and Mode, Time Signature, Danceability, Energy, Loudness, Speechiness, Instrumentalness, Liveness, Valence, BPM (Beats Per Minute)

Data Analysis:

Google Sheets: Used for initial sorting, categorization, and basic statistical calculations.

Python: Employed for deeper data analysis, including correlation studies and pattern identification using libraries like Pandas and NumPy.

The combination of Google Sheets for preliminary analysis and Python for in-depth exploration ensured a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach to the data. This methodology allowed us to derive meaningful insights and patterns from the vast dataset, providing a holistic understanding of the musical DNA behind Spotify’s most-streamed tracks.

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