IS IT WORTH CHECKING THE HISTORY OF MATCHES?
Everyone has their own method of placing bets. Some support the notion of letting Lady Luck take the wheel, while others commit to doing their homework before placing a single bet. Which of the two methods works best?
Join us as we explore the idea of researching the match history before committing to a particular bet. If you’re interested in exploring other aspects of sports betting, feel free to browse the LV BET Sports Blog, where you can expand your sporting knowledge and have a blast at the same time.
- How to use statistics for betting
- Where to check statistics and match history
- How to assess the form of a team or player
- At home or away – does it matter?
- Injuries and their impact on sports betting
HOW TO USE STATISTICS FOR BETTING
Is the past any hint for the future? Not necessarily.
There’s no better way to start this article than by clarifying that misconception. Although researching statistics and previous matches will help give you an idea about the previous encounters between two sides, the upcoming match will not necessarily follow the same route.
Nevertheless, statistics from previous matches help give the punter an idea of what betting markets they should pay attention to.
By way of an example in football, let’s suppose that a Copa Libertadores final is going to be played. It is well known that matches in this South American competition are usually laden with yellow and red cards, owing to the flaring tension between most sides.
The knowledge of such football stats is nothing but an asset to the punter, who could then wisely choose to bet on the yellow and red card betting markets. Granted, the final could very well end up being a peaceful encounter; thus, rendering all the prior research somewhat futile.
In any case, all a punter can really do is study previous statistics. There’s no telling what the future holds, which is precisely why sports betting is such an interesting endeavour.
WHERE TO CHECK STATISTICS AND MATCH HISTORY
Now that you’ve understood the importance of match statistics, the next step would be finding a good, reliable and accurate source of information.
ACCESSING STATISTICS AT LV BET
First off, many top-notch Sportsbooks have their own way of providing the punter with the teams’ latest run of form. At LV BET, one can view this information upon entering the general match market and scrolling down. There, one can see each team’s past five results — a rough indicator of the team’s recent form.
By venturing into the ‘GENERAL H2H’ tab, one can find the outcome of the past head-to-head encounters between the two sides as well as the last five scorelines when they last played. Heading to the ‘STATS H2H’ tab will dive deeper into the statistics of the previous encounters between the two teams, including the average goals scored and the top scorers (in the case of football).
OTHER SOURCES OF STATISTICS
What about other, more detailed statistics such as the number of recent goals scored, recent goals conceded, injuries and so on? Here are a couple of good sources for that information.
LIVESCORE
Visiting LiveScore is always a good option — a website that offers real-time updates and information about many popular sports around the world, including football, basketball, tennis, hockey and cricket.
Having seen several updates over the years, LiveScore is many punters’ go-to when it comes to analysing statistics, form, as well as head-to-head encounters. A recent update has also seen the incorporation of injury lists under match fixtures.
TRANSFERMARKT
Invented in May 2000, Transfermarkt is a German-based website that is widely regarded as the one true football statistics database. This website offers an unparalleled, compendium-like source of information that any serious football fan knows about.
Before a game, it is common practice for punters to load up Transfermarkt and study the two teams’ run of form, including information about the starting line-ups, head-to-head results, most valuable players and more.
HOW TO ASSESS THE FORM OF A TEAM OR PLAYER
What specific pointers do punters keep in mind when assessing the current run of form of a team or player? Generally speaking, the more information at your disposal, the more informed your bets will be. With that said, the best tip a seasoned punter can give you is to pay attention to the information that matters.
We’ll explain the most important factors to keep in mind in the context of football, although most of these factors can be used when betting on other sports as well.
LATEST RESULTS
A team’s latest results can accurately indicate which of the two teams holds the momentum as they head into the fixture. If Team A has lost all of its last three games, chances are that it won’t be in the best form when it takes on Team B. On the other hand, if Team B has won four of its previous five games, there’s a good chance that it will face its opponents on the front foot.
Although a surprise performance can make all the previous predictions collapse, keep in mind that there’s no real way to predict the future and place a correct bet every time.
WHO HOSTS WHO
The location of an upcoming game, as well as which of the two sides will be playing home or away, are two factors that heavily influence the outcome of a game — at least, where football games are concerned.
Many factors contribute to the home team’s advantage, including its fans’ support and its familiarity with the pitch size. Many teams have gone on long stretches of unbeaten runs thanks to such factors. For example, Real Madrid’s longest unbeaten home run stretched for a whopping 121 matches, lasting from the year 1957 to 1965.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Fixtures between any two teams are stories that keep getting rewritten as time rolls by. Some punters can see similarities between the same fixtures played over the years. Sometimes, there aren’t any similarities, to begin with.
For example, you might discover that Team A and B precedents have always been matches full of goals. In light of that, a bettor might decide to try an Over/Under bet.
Inspecting the two teams’ head-to-head record is a solid way of forming hypotheses. From said hypotheses, a bettor can formulate and organise their bets.
MANAGERIAL CHANGES
A managerial change can uproot a club’s status quo, potentially leading to an immediate burst of positive results. On the flip side, such an event might lead to negative results, owing to the instability created in its wake.
Reading about the news pertaining to the two teams you’re about to bet on will be enough to learn about a managerial change.
PLAYER INJURIES
Player injuries can definitely be hurdles, and as such, they must be taken into consideration by the punter. Teams with substantial squad depth, such as Manchester City or Real Madrid, can still pay a hefty price for an injury to any of their star players. Consequently, we’d advise you to pay attention to any injuries happening prior to a match.
BIWEEKLY DUTIES
Is either of the two teams participating in the UEFA Champions League, Europa League or Conference League? Playing twice a week takes a toll on every athlete out there, and footballers are no strangers to this expense.
If a team is coming off a European midweek fixture, pay attention to shifts in a team’s line-up. Most managers tend to change their starting XI when their teams are fresh off a cumbersome midweek fixture, hoping to mitigate injuries.
AT HOME OR AWAY – DOES IT MATTER?
Let’s dive a little deeper into the significance of whether a team is playing home or away. The aspect of home advantage is ubiquitous within the world of sports, where the team playing at home is said to have a far greater advantage than the team it is hosting. Why? Here are some substantial advantages of playing at home:
- Fan support – the home team invariably enjoys much more support from its fans compared to the away team, whose fans are only allocated a small portion of the stadium. This tilts the advantage in favour of the hosts, especially when the fans provide the team with heartfelt support.
- Familiarity with pitch dimensions – in the case of football, the pitch dimensions of a team’s home ground are much more familiar than those of other stadia. While not as potent of a factor as fan support, feeling the comfort of its own turf can give the home team an edge over its guests.
- Familiarity with the climate – The climate disparity between different regions, provinces or states of a country can be very significant. The home team enjoys an advantage in this regard since it is more accustomed to the weather conditions of its own backyard.
These advantages can take the wind out of the sails of the best clubs in the world. With regard to football, elites of the likes of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are known to suffer when playing away from home, which is why the odds usually sway in the home team’s favour. A remarkable match that encapsulates the home advantage is when Celtic beat Barcelona by two goals to one at Celtic Park.
With that said, experienced squads can anticipate and counter this potential disadvantage when playing away from home. Experienced captains can motivate the team’s younger players more than usual ahead of an away fixture, whereas managers can instruct their team to be more offensive during the early stage of the match.
INJURIES AND THEIR IMPACT ON SPORTS BETTING
Whether it is owing to a tightly packed fixture calendar, poor physical training or simply misfortune, an injury can cost the team more than just a premature substitution. In fact, most managers wince at the thought of losing any player in their starting line-ups, since the ramifications of such an incident will indubitably act as a hurdle for the team.
Although an injury to an esteemed player can affect their team’s odds of winning the match, most punters underestimate the lengths that the team goes to make up for that absence. It is known that such a team would likely raise its attention levels and pull together even more when one of its star players is injured — ironically, this can lead to a potentially better performance than usual.
This is the basis of a very popular argument being put forth in recent years, which hints at the fact that injuries are overestimated in sports betting. Bookies are always on top of the latest injuries; thus, the odds are altered almost immediately. This leaves very little leeway for punters to capitalise on this situation. In most cases, an underdog will remain the underdog even if its opposing team loses a star player. Chances are that the injured player has a more-than-reliable substitute to take their place.
The bottom line that a punter should understand is to always take injuries for what they are: potential hurdles that any team with a good-enough substitute can jump over. Avoid letting injury news affect your betting market choice unless you truly believe it will have an effect.
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*Odds subject to change. Odds correct at time of publishing